The fall of the key city of Donetsk could be an “operational disaster” for Ukraine. – Global News (Trending Perfect)

In Ukraine's most contested region, Russian forces are now less than eight miles from Pokrovsk, the main logistics hub of Ukraine Taking Donetsk would create myriad problems for Ukraine, from cutting off supply lines to allowing Russia to advance across a larger swath of the eastern part of the country. The fall of Donetsk would be “a serious operational disaster,” as one prominent Ukrainian military observer noted.

The Russians, who say they have captured several small towns near Pokrovsk today, are closing in on the besieged city via a seven-mile-long salient. They are being supported by a larger offensive as their forces continue to seize more territory, according to Ukrainian investigative group DeepState Russian and Ukrainian channels on Telegram.

It is bisected by a major railway line and lies in the middle of three highways with other roads branching off in several directions. Pokrovsk is a crucial bulwark against a large-scale collapse. In the area.

“Pokrovsk has become a key distribution hub supporting Ukrainian forces along the broad front line from Vuhldar to northern Donetsk and beyond,” Tataregami, a military observer, military intelligence and foreign intelligence analyst, and founder of Frontiers Insight, wrote on Twitter. “Currently, only two places in Donbas serve this vital function – Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk. Pokrovsk’s importance extends beyond its rail connections – it also sits at a major road junction, playing a similar role in the transportation and distribution of supplies.”

In particular, the H20 highway, which connects Pokrovsk to Kostyantynivka, has been “a long-standing Russian target. Cutting it would exacerbate the resupply of troops in the Bakhmut-Horlivka sector. The potential loss of Pokrovsk poses an operational threat to logistics in the area, from Vuhldar to Horlivka.”

Tataregami noted that the capture of Pokrovsk, which lies more than 12 miles east of the Dnipro region border, could have a regional domino effect.

“Given Russia's return to the Kharkiv region in May 2024, there is no reason to believe that Putin will stop at the Donetsk and Lugansk borders,” he added.

Veteran, activist, and attorney Oleg Simorgh He offered a similar view on the importance of Pokrovsk, saying: Ukrainian Observe News outlet That it must be defended at all costs.

“There is still time to prepare the city for defense. Pokrovsk must be defended, it is of strategic importance,” Seymours said.

The road to [Dnipro] “The area passes through the city of Pokrovsk, so the enemy must be restrained here,” he added.

The Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces stressed that Ukraine is trying to do precisely that.

“The fighting is very difficult,” says Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky. He said on Telegram on Thursday“The enemy in battle uses everything he can to move and advance, trying to penetrate the defenses of our forces.”

“The fiercest fighting is now taking place on the eastern outskirts of Hrudivka, along the border of the Kamyany and Krasny ravines, directly in Novorkhodivka, below, in the area of ​​the eastern outskirts of Mikhailivka, which lies in front of Seledovo,” he added.

Pokrovsk is the hottest place on the battlefield, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine He said on Telegram.

“Since the beginning of the day, the occupiers have already made 34 attempts to dislodge our defenders from their occupied positions in the areas of 11 different settlements,” she claimed. “Almost half of all clashes took place near Selidovoye and Novogrudivka. The defense forces, holding back the enemy’s offensive, have repelled a total of 23 enemy attacks in this direction. Other attacks are still ongoing. The enemy is suffering significant losses in manpower.”

However, some Russian and Ukrainian sources say that Moscow's forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk with little resistance, which has raised concerns in Ukraine.

“Thirty Russians have captured the small town of Novorodovka, more than eight miles from Pokrovsk, almost without a fight,” local media reported. Russian Operation Z Telegram Channel He claimed that the town of Seledovo, about 10 miles away, was “already half under Russian control!”

A photo that has been circulating on social media shows Russians raising their flag on a building there.

Video shows a Ukrainian drone attacking a Russian flag on high ground near Seledovo. Although no Russian troops or equipment are visible, the presence of the flag suggests that Ukraine no longer controls the site.

Video footage was filmed showing Russian soldiers planting flags in other parts of the region.

“The Ukrainian Armed Forces hastily built several large strongholds in this area, but they did not help them in any way,” Russian military telegram channel reported“Krutoy Yar and Krasny Yar were liberated earlier.”

Several Russian channels on Telegram suggested that the Ukrainian withdrawal from the region was so rapid that it was either a ruse or politically motivated.

“The Ukrainian Armed Forces are luring the Russian army, and are themselves preparing to launch flanking attacks on the communications of the forward group,” Markov Logic Telegram Channel On the other hand, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he is preparing to launch another major offensive in the Kursk, Bryansk or Belgorod regions. He sent reserves there, because this is more politically important.

One of Ukraine's most prominent voices, drone creator Sergei Sternenko, has criticized efforts to defend Pokrovsk.

“The defense in the Pokrovsky direction is so disorganized that the Russians themselves do not believe their advance. It is unfortunate that the high command continues to receive reports about the “controlled situation,” which is still far from being controlled,” he tweeted.

“Poor interaction between brigades and smaller adjacent units” is among the biggest problems, he added.

“There is a shortage of personnel and their disproportionate distribution in defensive positions,” he added, adding that “our electronic warfare systems suppress our drones better than enemy electronic warfare systems.”

In addition, there is “chaos in the rotation of brigades. One can leave before the other enters. The enemy uses this and strikes there. The command does not actually manage the troops, has not established interaction and has no information about our real positions. There are often cases when units are sent to positions already in the rear of the Russians because [command] “They think they're behind us. – Lies, lies, lies again.”

Meanwhile, inside Pokrovsk, there is a sense of impending doom mixed with the determination of many people who seem to want to stay.

The city once had a population of about 60,000, and officials want those who remain to leave. However, there were still “38,000 people and 1,900 children” in the city as of Wednesday. Donetsk Governor Vadim Vilashkin said in a telegram:“Everyone must evacuate to safer areas in Ukraine.”

He added that banks will stop working by the end of the week, and only ATMs will be operating from Monday.

Despite all the problems, the fall of Pokrovsk may be imminent, but it may not be immediate, Tatarigami says.

“Does this mean that the loss of Pokrovsk is imminent?” he asked rhetorically. “No, but the chances of that are increasing due to the balance of forces. Despite Ukrainian efforts to withdraw Russian forces by pushing into Kursk, the Russian command is reluctant to redeploy significant forces from Pokrovsk.”

It is impossible to consider the real possibility of a strategically important city in Ukraine falling into Russian hands without taking into account the Kursk operation. Thousands of soldiers and their equipment were allocated to this offensive, and these resources could be better used to defend Ukrainian territory only if Pokrovsk falls.

One of the reasons Ukraine invaded Russia’s Kursk region with some 10,000 troops, including some of its best units and vehicles, was to withdraw troops from the Pokrovsk region. But that apparently didn’t happen, a former high-ranking Ukrainian officer told us.

“Kursk did not succeed in this direction. Perhaps the Russians read what we were saying,” he said.

But despite this, Ukraine “has options to stabilize the line, including deploying new brigades, redeploying forces from Kursk and Kharkov, or redeploying battalions from more stable fronts,” Tataregami concluded. “However, time is not on the defenders’ side, and there is a risk of a serious operational catastrophe.”

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com