Labor may miss target seats as young voters turn away from Gaza and climate | exhaustion – Top Stories (Trending Perfect)


Senior party figures and pollsters have warned that Labor risks losing a number of its target seats as previously loyal progressive voters turn away from the party.

Experts said that Keir Starmer's party may struggle to win up to a dozen of its main targets, and may even lose two of the seats it currently holds, as a result of alienating some Muslims and young progressive voters angry about its position on Gaza and the Gaza Strip. Climate crisis.

Opinion polls indicate that the party is on track to achieve a landslide victory in the general elections this year. But if the margins narrow significantly, some Labor insiders fear giving up parts of the party's core votes could mean the difference between a hung parliament and an outright majority.

Labor may lose seats despite huge lead in national polls: Bristol Central and Sheffield Hallam

A senior Labor adviser told The Guardian: “Are we losing urban progressive voters? naturally. Right now, it doesn't seem to matter because our poll lead is so wide, but it could hurt if it narrows and those voters don't return.

“What this really means is that a lot of Labor MPs who assumed their seats were very safe will have to spend more time this year campaigning in their seats than they expected.”

Patrick English, director of political analysis at YouGov, said: “If there is significant anti-Labour sentiment among Muslim and young voters, it could cost them dearly in places where these groups make up 10-15% of the electorate.” Population for each.

“If the polls are equal or even if Labor is leading by five points, it could be very damaging for Labor and could mean they fail to win the full range of English marginal seats.”

Opinion polls showed the Labor Party leading by about 20 points and heading for a majority of more than 150 seats. Last month, it emerged that the party lost 23,000 members – from 390,000 members in January to 366,600, according to figures released to the National Executive Committee.

Starmer's decision to move to the right on issues such as the economy, immigration and the environment helped win the support of older white voters who supported Brexit in the referendum.

But these decisions also upset many traditional Labor voters in urban areas in particular. Key concerns for voters include the party's decision to abandon its commitment to spend £28bn a year on green projects and Starmer's defense of Israel's military operations in Gaza.

reconnaissance Released last week by YouGov Opinion poll results showed that the party had lost more than 50 seats since 2019, an unexpected result given that Labor had gained 12 percentage points in opinion polls since then.

Labor targets seats that may slip from its grasp, despite big lead in national polls: Brighton Pavilion and Peterborough

Labor officials said that under former leader Jeremy Corbyn, the party consolidated votes in safe seats, and that by moving to the right, it was now distributing its votes more evenly across the country.

However, it has unexpectedly put two Labor seats – Bristol Central and Sheffield Hallam – at risk, and could make the difference in up to ten other target seats expected to be close.

One Labor activist in an urban seat said: “Climate has been the big issue for us on the doorstep. Voters here are very politically engaged and very aware of what has happened to our green plans. That's the number one reason people are considering voting green instead.”

Other seats where Labor support has fallen significantly include Birmingham Ladywood and Liverpool Riverside. Both are safe Labor seats and are unlikely to fall in the election, but the decline has alarmed some local activists who say they have to put more effort into campaigning to make sure they stay safe.

Experts say the greatest danger lies in the northern “red wall” seats that Labor must win to gain a majority, but where the majority it is trying to topple are so large that any split in the progressive vote could cost it victory.

“Sheffield has traditionally been a centre-left city,” said Shafak Mohammed, the Lib Dem candidate in Sheffield Hallam, previously held by Nick Clegg but who has been Labor since 2017. Keir Starmer's embrace of some Conservative policies such as the two-child limit on benefits has not gone down well here.

Mohammed added that voters in the constituency, many of whom were students, often brought up the Labor Party's response to Gaza, in particular Interview with LBC Starmer appeared to say that Israel has the right to cut off water and electricity from the Gaza Strip. The Labor leader has since said that was not his position, but several party MPs said the interview resonated with their constituents.

Some said the real danger to Labor was not at this election, where the Conservatives show little sign of reversing the collapse in support they have suffered in the past two years, but at the next election, where they will be unable to stand as opposition. -Incumbents.

“This is a 2025 or 2028 challenge for Labour,” said Sunder Katwala, director of non-partisan think tank British Future. “There is a risk of taking your core votes for granted, and that risk will be very clear after the election.”

A Labor spokesman said: “We have had a deliberate strategy to broaden our electoral appeal by transforming the Labor Party and returning it to the service of the working class. We do not take any support for granted and will continue to work to regain any support we lost before the general election.”



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