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the April 8 Total solar eclipse It's now just a few days away, and many Americans are packing their bags and heading off to college. while Historical data indicates With huge odds of experiencing the eclipse under completely clear skies at this time of year, meteorologists are now feeling increasingly confident in models that show some parts of the country looking golden. However, other parts of the country may end up in a cloudy recession.
General cloud cover forecast for the United States
Not only is North America in the middle of the changing seasons this time of year, we are right now, too El Niño pattern. Meteorologists say this usually causes an increase in clouds and rain, but for some reason, it did not happen to the same extent this time.
One major difference from Eclipse 2017 What cuts across the continent is that the width of the 2024 eclipse path will be noticeably wider. According to NASA. This is because the Moon will technically be closer to Earth than it was last time.
the The path of totalitarianism – where the moon will completely block the sun – is about 150 miles across, and extends about 2,500 miles from Texas to northeastern Maine.
Historical data suggests that the further south you go along the path of totality, the greater the chance of not being eclipsed by clouds. Unfortunately, the patterns being established now do not necessarily match this expectation, which may suddenly leave those involved in the research identifying the best sites in the lurch.
Cloud cover forecast for Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas
Historically, data suggests that the best odds of not seeing clouds, from a climate perspective, can be found in areas to the south, which are already experiencing spring changes. But volatility is the key word.
Jeff RayTexas sees a sunny or mostly sunny day in April only about a quarter of the time on average, CBS Texas' chief meteorologist said. In fact, April is traditionally the third windiest month of the year in Texas.
Although historical odds still suggest the area would typically be considered a top destination, Ray says there's a good chance crowds will find themselves disappointed.
Jeff Ray's current forecast:
“The DFW area is the largest city on the overall route, receiving the lion's share of out-of-town visitors and families to observe this once-in-a-lifetime event. The weather is shaping up to disappoint millions of potential spectators. We've suspected over the past week that, to say the least “There will be a thin veil of clouds high above our heads for most of Monday. We are hopeful that the rain and strong storms forecast for today will continue. They will end later in the afternoon. We still believe that will be the case. However, rain is approaching.” From the south. As it rides moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico that has record warm temperatures (climate change due to ), this should produce a fairly thick layer of medium to low clouds. The question is when those clouds will reach the track area. Right now, it's not looking good. Timing is everything, even down to a few hours.
CBS News
Cloud cover forecast for Missouri, southern Illinois and Indiana
So, if Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are becoming among the least desirable places to go, how about going a little north?
It's an area that will likely be familiar to some hardcore eclipse chasers. A diamond-shaped section of the Earth centered (Carbondale, Illinois). It was on the path of totality in 2017, and will return again on April 8.
Southeast Missourians will find their historical cloud-free viewing odds more or less match those in Arkansas, and Chicago metro area residents should find their best bet is to head toward the southern part of Illinois, according to Albert Ramonchief meteorologist for CBS Chicago.
Ramon says April 8 typically brings cloud cover chances of 60% to 80% across Chicago and surrounding suburbs, and similar chances in Indianapolis. But Ramon says Monday may be different.
Albert Ramon's current forecast:
“One of the best locations in the country to view the eclipse will be in Carbondale! Not only because of the totality, but because of the weather. We are now looking for a good chance of mostly sunny skies Monday afternoon with moderate temperatures.” Chicago also looks better on Monday, with skies mainly dry and partly cloudy, and highs warmer in the mid 60s. For Indianapolis, expect mostly partly sunny skies and highs in the low 70s. “
Cloud cover forecast for the Great Lakes and Pennsylvania
The Great Lakes portion of the totality path includes large parts of Ohio, parts of Ontario south of Toronto, the Niagara Falls region, and the northwestern corner of Pennsylvania. CBS Pittsburgh Meteorologist Ray Bethlin He said he was keeping an eye on the Great Lakes region when making his final call to that part of the country.
Bethlen said clouds from the lake are his main concern. Erie, Pennsylvania, typically gets only six clear days during the entire month of April, for example.
Bethlin says the best hopes will be for possible southerly breezes or warmer than average temperatures. His latest models make him cautiously optimistic.
Ray Betlin's current predictions:
“There appears to be a few showers across the area, with a slightly better shot of seeing some heavy or missing rain near Lake Erie. However, the rain in Erie appears to be intermittent with breaks in the clouds to cloud some views of the sea. It looks like a total eclipse.” “There's more cloud cover as you head west toward Cleveland with showers. Hopefully you'll get some glimpses there as well. In Pittsburgh, there's a 97% chance of a partial eclipse. Skies are trending brighter with scattered showers possible.”
Cloud cover forecast for New England
It will be the college's final stop in the United States when the route moves from New York to New England. Traditionally, the New England region probably has the toughest odds in the country for capturing clear skies on April 8, based on historical patterns. Data suggests you're more likely to see clouds almost anywhere in these states than not.
“If you have Follow up over the past few weeksYou've probably heard that, climatologically, New England had the least odds of having clear skies on the big day. This should come as no surprise to anyone who is a native New Englander. April could be rough in these parts, said Terry Eliasen, executive weather producer for CBS Boston.
However, there is a silver lining, both figuratively and visually: Eliassen says current projections for the region seem to buck the odds and offer perhaps the country's clearest view of solar power supply.
Thierry Eliassen's current predictions:
“Monday may be the prettiest day of the first two weeks of the entire month of April! It looks like luck will be on our side. Most of the area should be almost completely clear. Some high clouds may distort the view a bit in much of western New England (Berkshire via Vermont), so, as of now, if you have the ability to go anywhere in New England, the safest bet would be northern Maine (the farthest from any possible cloud cover). (Partial to full to full) Lasts a few hours, “In total (the moment of truth) only lasts between 3-4 minutes. This happens at roughly the same time throughout our entire region. So, make sure you plan your day around those few minutes, especially if you're on track to complete.”
We look forward to 2045
Sometimes, the best laid plans go awry, and if you're in an area where clouds are ruining your view of a total solar eclipse, you'll have to wait a long time for your next viewing opportunity in the United States.
The next opportunity for an eclipse will come across national borders In August 2045When the total line runs from Northern California to Miami Beach.
Another reminder, whether you're in the path of totality or watching the partial eclipse from elsewhere in America: Make sure to wear special eclipse glasses To protect your eyes.
Eric Henderson
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