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The WNBA is already in full swing into the second half of the season, and it will be a sprint to the end. The regular season ends in exactly one month, with each team playing 12 to 14 games in the final round.
As players get back into the swing of things after the Olympic break and make one last attempt to reach the postseason, here's a look at the teams I expect to make the playoffs as well as a to-do list each team needs to focus on to be in the best possible position come playoff time.
Heading to the playoffs
1. New York Liberty
stay on track
The Liberty remind me of the Aces at this point last season. New York is the best team in the league, and a few bad games or a bad week isn’t going to change that, just as a Las Vegas loss in August didn’t stop the Aces from repeating their championship. It will be interesting to see if the Liberty choose to chase the single-season win record (34), which the Aces set last year. New York could also tie the best winning percentage ever — the Houston Comets won 90% of their games in 1998 — with a win, but that could be a pyrrhic victory if the Liberty burn themselves out and don’t close out the season with a ring. Just ask the 2016 Golden State Warriors.
The bag was deep and the Liberals finished the West Coast tour the right way 💪 #LightUpNewYork pic.twitter.com/raBUvOswFb
— New York Liberty (@nyliberty) August 18, 2024
2. Minnesota Lynx
add a little variety
The Lynx are loaded with 3-point shooters, but they don’t put much pressure on the basket, ranking last in points inside the box and free throw rate. That makes them overly reliant on 3-pointers in long games, even when they have four players (Kayla McBride, Alanna Smith, Bridget Carlton, and Cecilia Zandalasini) shooting at least 40 percent of the way. When they shoot less than 35.5 percent from 3-point range (the league average is 33.8), they have a 5-5 record. Once defenses get the 3-point line out of their reach—and the Liberty, in particular, seem perfectly capable of turning everything against them—it’s unclear how the Lynx will generate consistent offense.
3. Connecticut Sun
Diversify the offensive attack
The Suns are basically the opposite of the Lynx in terms of their offensive profile. They know what they have in the big three of Alyssa Thomas, Bree Jones and Dewanna Bonner. But that trio couldn’t lead Connecticut past the postseason, so the rest of this regular season should be a reconnaissance for the Suns — they need to figure out which perimeter player, or which perimeter moves, can take over when defenses go to the front line. Connecticut has gone with two-man moves with newly acquired Marina Mabry and Thomas, but against the Atlanta Dream’s zone-dive defense, the Suns’ spacing hasn’t been good enough. Connecticut needs to create more options in the halfcourt, including increasing its three-point attempt rate. Currently, 21.2 percent of the Suns’ points come from beyond the arc, which isn’t good enough against offensively strong teams like the Aces and Liberty.
4. Las Vegas Aces
Give the stars some rest.
The Aces have the bones of last year’s title-winning team, but they haven’t been able to put that formula together consistently. It’s hard to believe that team is no longer around, especially after watching A’ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum, and Jackie Young put on such strong performances at the Paris Olympics. The problem is that the Aces have a big hill to climb in the standings, and their players have been carrying heavy minutes this year, not to mention the added burden of multiple investigations into the organization. They may not have the fuel to make it through a full round of the playoffs if they keep their minutes count. As a result, though, that’s a distaste for their stars, as Becky Hammon pointed out on The athleteHaving participated in the Women’s Basketball Showcase earlier this year, they will likely be involved in some load management measures. Young already looks exhausted after returning from Paris, and is arguably the second most important player in Las Vegas. Even if it affects them in the standings, the Aces need to take a long view.
It's been secured 📽️📊
Wilson: 34 points / 13 rebounds / 5 steals / 2 blocks / 60% field shooting
Plum: 18 points / 4 3pm / 46% field goals
Hayes: 11 points / 3 rebounds / 50% field shooting
Young: 10 points / 4 rebounds / 4 assists / 2 steals in 3 minutes#Everyone_in_the_world pic.twitter.com/qA5z1t19Qs— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) August 19, 2024
5. Seattle Storm
Joel Lloyd got out of her predicament.
The Storm’s three-point shooting rate was terrible in 2024, with a league-worst 29.3 percent from long range. Seattle isn’t awash with sharpshooters, but when a player who shoots more than a quarter of the team’s three-point attempts is shooting 26 percent from long range, that’s a problem. The theory was that Joel Lloyd’s shooting percentages would improve with a lighter offensive load given the arrivals of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike, but that hasn’t been the case. There doesn’t seem to be anything wrong with Lloyd’s performance, and she’s still hitting over 87 percent of her free throws, so it seems like a matter of time before the worm turns, but the Storm’s offense can’t survive without Lloyd becoming more efficient.
6. Indiana Fever
Be more defensively disciplined.
The Fever has a number of defensive issues, as you might expect for a team that ranks second to last in defensive rating. Many of these issues have been mitigated by their blistering offense in recent games, but the main issue is how often they send opponents to the free throw line. It would be easier to overlook their high free throw rate if Indiana forced a lot of fouls — those free throws would simply be a casualty of Indiana’s aggression. However, the Fever ranks dead last in foul percentage and 11th in defensive free throw rate. They can afford to be a little less skilled because they don’t take the ball anyway; furthermore, according to PBP stats, they score 6.7 more points per 100 possessions on field goals than on free throws made.
go deeper
Why Caitlin Clarke's Missing the Olympics Could Be a Blessing in Disguise for Her Senior Season
7. Phoenix Mercury
rebound
Some teams prioritize the defensive glass, others the offensive glass. With the Mercury, gathering the boards is a struggle on both ends. They rank 11th in both offensive rebounding percentage and defensive rebounding percentage. Some of that is structural, as Phoenix generally plays with a bunch of wings and just one player up front, whether it’s Brittney Griner or Natasha Mack. The Mercury have gotten smaller with Rebecca Allen’s injury, which has added to their possession disadvantage — the opposition took 14 more shots in each of their first two games of the second half. The roster won’t change much between now and the end of the season; at this point, Phoenix should stick to boxing better.
8. Atlanta Dream
Play more perfect formation combinations.
The Dream’s first-half performance was relatively disastrous, especially after they gave up control of their 2025 first-round pick in the Alisha Gray deal — a deal that was the right move for Atlanta in the long run, but it negates the value of a runaway ahead of what could be a game-changing project. That’s why the Dream must maximize their present and advance in the playoffs despite losing eight straight games before the Olympic break.
Fortunately for the Dream, Atlanta is finally healthy enough to maximize its players. Even after winning two straight, the Dream is dead last in the league in offensive rating at 94.8 points per 100 possessions, which would be the worst mark in the WNBA since 2021. The five players with a positive offensive differential are Gray, Tina Charles, Naz Hillmon, Ryan Howard and Jordyn Canada, but they were never available at the same time during the first half. They are available now, and Tanisha Wright has started the group in the last two games, leading to big wins over Seattle and Connecticut. It’s a unit that complements each other’s skills with rim pressure, shooting, perimeter and interior defense, and Atlanta needs to maximize their minutes going forward.
JC didn't come to play! 🔥 #AtlantaDream pic.twitter.com/7vjakGTrfM
— Atlanta Dream (@AtlantaDream) August 19, 2024
Post-season chase
9. Chicago Sky
Unleash Dana Evans
The Sky have five players under contract next season, two of whom are expected to be part of the future core in Angel Reyes and Camila Cardoso. Dana Evans is a restricted free agent, so Chicago could keep her on a long-term contract if she shows a fit with the forward duo. So far, Lindsey Allen and Chennedy Carter have been much better complements on the perimeter, but this is Evans’ chance to make her case for staying. Even if things don’t go well, losing isn’t the worst-case scenario for the Sky, who could end up in the lottery if they and the Wings fail to qualify for the playoffs.
10. Dallas Wings
Cleaning the rotors
At some point, we’re going to stop talking about Dallas’s point guard hole. Today isn’t that day. The Wings had the first of five available starters against Connecticut to start the second half of the season, and all it resulted in was 21 fouls, worse than their league-leading mark of 16.6 per game. Sevgi Uzun hasn’t been the answer at point guard; 19.4 percent of her possessions end in fouls, which ranks 135th among all WNBA players. Last year’s three-point guard attack of Crystal Dangerfield, Veronica Burton and Odyssey Sims are all on other teams, leaving Uzun and rookie Jaci Sheldon (who isn’t really a natural point guard) to handle those duties, and the struggles were clear.
In fairness to those newbies, long-range shooting naturally leads to more fouls, and Dallas (arguably the league’s top team) ranks second in long-range shots per game. However, many of the Wings’ fouls are unintentional, and may be the result of a mismatch. Better health could lead to more cohesion, as Dallas needs to take care of its possessions to get back into the playoff picture.
11. Los Angeles Sparks
Convert beige
Unfortunately for long-suffering Sparks fans who have seen their team make three consecutive trips to the lottery, a fourth is in the franchise’s long-term best interest, especially after rookie Cameron Brink tore her ACL in June. Los Angeles doesn’t have the talent to compete in the playoffs, and chasing the eighth seed to win two games makes no sense, especially when the Sparks hold their first-round pick this year but not in 2026. Ideally, Los Angeles features its young players as much as possible and sees what Rekia Jackson, Ray Burrell, Zia Cook and Lee Yoeru can do before the 2025 offseason, when the Sparks will have to build a roster that can compete. Dropping to the bottom of the standings (LA is currently two games “ahead” of Washington for the worst two-year record) would allow the Sparks to get the best possible lottery odds to draft Paige Bueckers. She’s the perfect complement to the rookie forward line of Brink and Jackson.
go deeper
Paige Bueckers aims to make this her last season at Connecticut…and go out with a bang.
12. Washington Mystics
Shakira Austin Re-establishment
After an all-new rookie campaign in 2022 that culminated in a spot on Team USA’s FIBA World Cup roster, Austin wasn’t healthy enough to recreate that level of play for consistent periods. Now that she’s back with the Mystics, this is their chance to re-acclimatize Austin to WNBA play while seeing how she fits in next to Aaliyah Edwards. Washington will likely have at least one, if not two, lottery picks in the upcoming draft, and the front office needs to figure out if the franchise needs another piece up front, or if Austin and Edwards can be the centerpieces of the future. The good news for the Mystics is that they have capable point guards in Julie Vanloo and Brittney Sykes, so they can properly evaluate their front line in that context.
(Kelsey Mitchell and Kaitlyn Clark Photo: Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
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