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“It doesn't matter how many times you play against someone – it doesn't mean much,” De Minaur said.
He plays Jack, he's coming off his best year ever, [and] He plays with a lot of confidence. He has some very strong weapons – his serve, his backhand and his forehand at times, so it's always difficult to play against a player like him, especially if he's left-handed.
Jack Draper's service will be key in his quarter-final clash with De Minaur.credit: Getty Images
“I've had some success in the past, so I'm going to try to take advantage of that, of what I've been able to do well in matches like this – a Grand Slam quarterfinal. I'm going to go out there and do my best and compete… Being negative is not going to get the job done.”
Digging deeper into the numbers, and the players' history against each other, provides more optimism for De Minaur.
Statistically, De Minaur is the best ball returner in the world, but one of the less appreciated reasons he appears as a top contender is that he also ranks ninth in terms of percentage of second serve points won.
the matchstat website This shows that the gap between de Minaur and Draper's second serve scores has become wider in the past six months, with the Australian winning around 56 per cent of those points compared to the Briton's less than 51 per cent.
At the US Open, De Minaur was 61 percent to Draper's 58 percent.
The same site reveals a strong correlation between this statistic and match prediction accuracy, while another strong indicator is success in returning the first serve, with De Minaur winning about 58 percent of points in the same period compared to 51.5 percent for Draper.
Draper is the only player in the men's draw yet to lose a set, but one of the main reasons for that is that he has saved 20 of 21 break points with his powerful serve, well above his annual average of 58 percent.
According to ATP statistics, De Minaur ranks third on the tour over the past 12 months in converting break points at 44.3 percent, although Draper is one place ahead of him in that metric.
His compatriot De Minaur, who just beat Jordan Thompson, believes his Davis Cup teammate has “no holes”.
“If he's hitting an average shot, he makes up for it with his speed and his defensive skills,” Thompson said. “It's like if he's a good hitter, he'll hit a better shot, especially if he's moving. So, it's really tough to play with him. He doesn't play with a lot of spin, so the ball goes through him.”
“He had the chance and I'm sure he knows it, but he'll die trying to win this championship.”
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All three matches De Minaur played against Draper were competitive matches, and none of them were completed without dropping a set.
Their only Grand Slam meeting was in the second round at Wimbledon two years ago, when they shared two long, close sets before the physically superior De Minaur overcame the tired Briton.
“You played great.” [second-set] Break the tie, and you can see how the whole momentum has changed… [and that] “He was probably struggling a bit physically, and I was able to take advantage of that,” De Minaur said after that encounter in 2022.
It was a major blow to Draper's career, although he had shown improved fitness and commitment during his breakout season, including being banned from caffeine by his coach James Trotman – who previously worked for Tennis Australia – during the US Open.
“I've always been a person who liked to enjoy myself, enjoyed time at home, and maybe didn't have a work mentality,” Draper said.
De Minaur, pictured after beating Draper at Wimbledon two years ago, has a 3-0 head-to-head record against the Briton. credit: dad
“The life of a tennis player is completely different. I had to be more alone and make sure I was doing all the right things with my warm-ups, cool-downs, keeping my body fresh, ice baths, gym sessions.
“Since last year, I have become more focused on myself and what is important to me.”
De Minaur and Draper will face off in the early hours of Thursday morning for the right to play the winner between world No. 1 Jannik Sinner and 2021 U.S. Open winner Daniil Medvedev.
The other men's semi-final will be between Americans Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe, who knocked out Zverev, and Bulgarian ninth seed Grigor Dimitrov.
Fritz beat Zverev 7-6 (7-2), 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 (7-3) to reach his first Grand Slam semi-final, with Tiafoe advancing when Dimitrov retired with a leg injury while trailing 6-3, 6-7 (5-7), 6-3, 4-1.
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In the women's competition, Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka defeated China's Cheng Chenwen 6-1, 6-2, while Emma Navarro continued the strong performance of the United States in the tournament by defeating Paula Badosa 6-2, 7-5.
Watch every match from US Open Tennis Championship 2024 Ad-free, live and on-demand on Stan Sport With selected matches live on 9GO and live streaming on 9 now.
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