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Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in St. Petersburg, Russia, June 7, 2024.
Anton Vaganov | Reuters
Russia has again indicated that it is making changes to its official position on the use of nuclear weapons, amid Ukraine's ongoing incursion into the Kursk border region.
Russia is amending its nuclear doctrine, which sets out the conditions under which nuclear weapons can be used, over what it sees as a Western-backed “escalation” of the war with Ukraine, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Sunday.
Russia has accused the West of encouraging Ukraine’s cross-border raid that has seen its forces seize nearly 500 square miles of Russian territory since it began on Aug. 6. Ukraine’s NATO allies deny any prior knowledge of the operation or any involvement in its offensive.
Ryabkov told Russia's TASS news agency on Sunday that work was “at an advanced stage” to amend Russia's nuclear doctrine governing the use of nuclear weapons.
“There is a clear tendency to make adjustments, which are also based on the study and analysis of the experience of the development of the conflict in recent years, including … everything related to the escalation path of our Western opponents in relation to the SVO. [special military operation]Ryabkov said, referring to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine:
Ryabkov did not specify when any changes would be completed, saying in comments translated by Google: “When this work will be completed is a rather difficult question, given that we are talking about the most important aspects of ensuring our national security.”
terms of use
Russian threats to use nuclear weapons are not new, but Ryabkov's comments echo recent statements. Made by top officials and The KremlinRussia is reportedly preparing the ground for changes in state policy regarding the circumstances in which the use of nuclear weapons is acceptable.
Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory, and its targeting of military facilities and infrastructure using Western-supplied weapons, especially in the case of long-range missiles, have raised the stakes as to whether Moscow will consider using nuclear weapons to defend its territory.
As it is, Russian nuclear doctrine Article 12 of the Constitution states that Russia “reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction against itself and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened.”
Russia has multiple missile systems capable of carrying nuclear warheads, including the RS-24 Yars missile system, shown here during the Victory Day parade on Red Square, May 9, 2024, in Moscow, Russia.
Bai Xueqi | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images
Other conditions that could determine the use of nuclear weapons by Russia include “receiving reliable information about the launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territory of the Russian Federation and/or its allies,” as well as “the enemy’s impact on critical state or military facilities,” according to a Google translation of the document.
However, in its 2020 policy, Russia described nuclear weapons as a “means of deterrence,” and their use as an “extreme and necessary measure.” Russia referred to its nuclear doctrine as “defensive in nature” and said it was “making all necessary efforts to reduce the nuclear threat and prevent aggravation of relations between states that could lead to military conflicts, including nuclear conflicts.”
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly reiterated his message that Moscow will not hesitate to deploy such weapons if its territorial integrity and sovereignty are threatened.
Last May, Russia conducted tactical nuclear weapons exercises near the border with Ukraine, and has also deployed such weapons inside the territory of its ally Belarus.
This still image from a video released on June 12, 2024, shows military vehicles of units of Russia's Leningrad Military District driving along a road during the second stage of tactical nuclear exercises of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces at an undisclosed location.
Russian Defense Ministry | via Reuters
Tactical or non-strategic nuclear weapons are designed for use on the battlefield and are capable of wiping out specific targets, such as military bases or training centers.
Although these weapons are less destructive than strategic nuclear weapons that can wipe out entire cities, the deployment of such weapons would represent a dangerous escalation in the war, and raise fears of a direct confrontation with the West.
Putin has also indicated a willingness to change the circumstances in which such weapons can be used, stating in June that the country's nuclear doctrine is a “living instrument” that can be changed.
We must clarify what constitutes use or non-use. [of nuclear weapons]“There are also specific scenarios in which they can be used. We have a nuclear doctrine, and everything is clear in it… It clearly states that nuclear weapons can only be used in exceptional cases – when there is a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country, in exceptional circumstances.” Putin saidIn his speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June.
“I do not think that this moment has come, and there is no need for it. However, this doctrine is a living instrument, and we closely follow developments in the world around us, and we do not rule out the possibility of making changes to this doctrine,” Putin added.
The necessity of penetration
Russia appears to be preparing its domestic and international audience for changes in its government policy on the use of nuclear weapons since Ukraine launched an ambitious cross-border raid into Russia's Kursk border region nearly a month ago.
In August, the Russian foreign minister, his deputy and the Kremlin spokesman announced that the changes would be announced soon.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (center) and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (right) watch joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises at the polygon on September 26, 2013 in Grodno, Belarus.
Sasha Mordovits | Getty Images News | Getty Images
As such, there are question marks over whether Russia is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons against Ukraine out of an urgent need to respond to an operation that has embarrassed the Kremlin and exposed weaknesses in Russia’s national defenses.
In August, David Roche, president of Quantum Strategy, said in an analysis: “Russian military doctrine has always justified the use of nuclear weapons if Russia’s territorial integrity is threatened. The scope of Russian retaliation is largely unlimited.”
Roche described the Ukrainian attack on Kursk as a “game changer,” adding that the operation could make a nuclear confrontation more likely because it “undermines NATO's efforts to avoid escalation.”
“By invading Russia, Ukraine has destroyed most of the lower rungs on the escalation ladder that the alliance, and the United States in particular, sought to maintain,” he noted.
A soldier sets up an underground drone at a Ukrainian military site and a former Russian military site in Ukrainian-controlled territory on Aug. 18, 2024, in Kursk, Russia. The commander of the Ukrainian Air Force said Ukrainian forces operating in Russia's Kursk region destroyed a second major bridge, as they tried to push deeper into Russia.
The Washington Post | The Washington Post | Getty Images
Despite its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has described the war as an existential battle, accusing the West of backing Ukraine in an attempt to destroy Russia. Ukraine’s Western NATO allies deny the claim, saying continued military aid to Kyiv is aimed at defending the country’s territorial sovereignty and independence.
Ukrainian officials have expressed hope that the incursion, crossing one of the Kremlin’s so-called “red lines,” will allay Western fears that Putin might resort to using nuclear weapons — and might encourage more NATO allies to agree to use longer-range missiles against targets inside Russia.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War downplayed Ryabkov's comments, saying Sunday evening that “Russian officials continue to engage in nuclear weapons bluster in an attempt to encourage the West to deter itself and reduce its support for Ukraine.”
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov confirmed on September 1 that Russia would change its nuclear doctrine based on recent conflicts and alleged Western escalation in Ukraine, but noted that there were no specific dates for the changes. The Institute for the Study of War noted in its analysis:adding:
Ryabkov did not specify the nature of the alleged changes to the doctrine, and the Institute for the Study of War continues to assess that Russia is highly unlikely to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine or engage in a nuclear confrontation elsewhere.
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